CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-01-25T18:00:00-CME-001)

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-01-26T10:26Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 253
Longitude (deg): E015
Latitude (deg): S01
Half-angular width (deg): 12

Notes: Low confidence - fit was to STEREO A COR2 imagery only, and source region was inferred. Ejecta assumed to be emitted from long-period A-class flare from AR2757 at around 25/1530UTC. Enlil cone file longitude was easting of sunspot at this time, with the ejecta directed slightly downwards. There is a systematic error with the initialised solar wind speed in MOSWOC Enlil at present that has meant that the expected arrival has been delayed slightly from 29 into 30 January.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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